Stock Market Returns Over the Last 100 Years

$1 invested in the S&P 500 in 1926 grew to more than $10,000 by 2026. Here’s what a century of stock market data reveals about returns, risk, and the power of patience.

From the Roaring Twenties through the COVID-19 pandemic and the AI boom of the 2020s, the US stock market has delivered a remarkable 10% average annual return over the last 100 years (1926–2026). After adjusting for inflation, the real return stands at about 6.5% per year. While individual decades vary wildly, the long-term trend is unmistakably upward.

Average Annual Returns by Decade

1930s (Great Depression): −0.6%/yr — The only negative decade; peak-to-trough loss of 86% during the 1929 crash.
1940s (War & Recovery): 9.2%/yr — World War II mobilization and post-war industrial boom.
1950s (Post-War Boom): 14.5%/yr — Strongest nominal decade of the 20th century; the Nifty Fifty era begins.
1960s (Go-Go Years): 8.5%/yr — Solid returns punctuated by the 1968–69 bear market.
1970s (Stagflation): 5.9%/yr — Negative real returns (inflation averaged 7.4%).
1980s (Bull Market Begins): 17.5%/yr — Falling interest rates and the dawn of the modern buy-and-hold era.
1990s (Tech & Dot-Com): 18.2%/yr — Best decade ever; driven by the internet revolution and productivity gains.
2000s (Lost Decade): 0.0%/yr — Dot-com crash, 9/11, and the 2008 financial crisis erased all gains.
2010s (Recovery & Growth): 13.6%/yr — The longest bull market in history; zero-interest rates fueled valuations.
2020s (So Far): 10.3%/yr (2020–2025) — Pandemic crash followed by rapid recovery; AI stocks led the charge.

Inflation-Adjusted (Real) Returns

Nominal average: 10% per year — The headline number quoted by most financial media.
Real average: 6.5% per year — After subtracting the 3.5% average inflation rate.
Why real returns matter: A 10% nominal return with 4% inflation gives only 5.8% real purchasing power growth.
Worst 20-year real return: 0.3%/yr (1929–1949) — But never negative over any 15-year period.

The Power of Compounding Over 100 Years

$1 in 1926 = $10,000+ in 2026 (nominal) — A 10,000-to-1 return over 100 years.
$1 in 1926 = $660 in 2026 (inflation-adjusted) — Still a 660-to-1 real return.
$10,000 invested in 1926 = $100 million+ (nominal) — Illustrates the exponential power of reinvested dividends.
Key lesson: Time in the market beats timing the market. Missing the 10 best days per decade cuts returns by 50%+.

Rolling Return Analysis

5-year rolling returns: Have been negative 12% of the time (e.g., 2004–2008).
10-year rolling returns: Negative only twice: the Great Depression and the Lost Decade (2000–2009).
15-year rolling returns: Never negative in any 15-year period since 1926.
20-year rolling returns: Always positive; average of 9.3% nominal, 5.8% real.

Related Resources

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$1,000 Growing Over 10 Years

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FAQs

What is the average annual return of the S&P 500 over 100 years?

The S&P 500 has returned an average of approximately 10% per year (nominal) from 1926 through 2026. After adjusting for inflation, the real return is about 6.5% per year.

What was the worst decade for stock market returns?

The 1930s (Great Depression) was the only negative decade, averaging −0.6% per year. The 2000s (the “Lost Decade”) was flat at 0% as the dot-com crash and 2008 financial crisis wiped out earlier gains.

Has the stock market ever had a negative 15-year period?

No. Since 1926, every 15-year rolling period in the S&P 500 has produced positive total returns. Even investors who bought at the peak of the 1929 bubble saw positive returns within 15 years.

How does inflation affect stock market returns?

High inflation erodes real returns. The 1970s saw 5.9% nominal returns but 7.4% inflation, producing negative real returns of −1.5% per year. Over long time horizons, stocks have hedged inflation reasonably well, but not perfectly.